In recent years, relations between Africa and the Gulf states have evolved into a multifaceted South–South partnership, grounded in pragmatism, realism and converging interests. In a global context marked by the steady decline of official development assistance (ODA), the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has increasingly been perceived as a potential new frontier for development financing. Beyond this, Africa–GCC engagement— driven by a combination of concessional finance and private investment—now spans a wide range of sectors, including agriculture and food; climate and energy; logistics and transport; mining; real estate and tourism; technology; and trade.
The war now engulfing the Middle East threatens to disrupt this positive trajectory. GCC countries may be compelled to redirect resources toward mitigating the economic fallout of the conflict and addressing domestic fiscal pressures. At the same time, their external risk appetite could diminish, to the detriment of African partners, potentially drying up a key source of capital and financial support. In parallel, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has deprived African economies of export revenues while disrupting supply chains that transit through the Gulf—most notably via the Jebel Ali port in Dubai.
More broadly, a major energy supply shock stemming from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz has forced many African countries to scramble for alternative oil supplies while driving up energy prices and placing additional strain on current accounts. Fertilizer shortages will push food prices up, increasing vulnerability across the continent. The conditions under which Africa finances its public spending could also be further complicated, compounding ongoing sovereign debt challenges. Slowing global growth could weigh on commodity prices, dampening export revenues, while stagflation in developed economies risks diverting political attention away from Africa’s needs and accelerating the decline in ODA. Meanwhile, multilateral frameworks—already constrained by great power competition— remain ill-equipped to respond effectively to these mounting challenges.
Against this backdrop, ORF Middle East is convening a webinar bringing together leading African experts from renowned African policy institutes to unpack the implications of the Middle East crisis for the continent.
Speakers:
- Gustavo de Carvalho, Senior Researcher, South African Institute of International Affairs
- Emmanuel Owusu-Sekyere, Director of Research, Policy & Programs, African Center for Economic Transformation
- Nouzha Chekrouni, Senior Fellow, Policy Center for the New South
- Akram Zaoui (moderator), Associate Fellow, Geopolitics, ORF Middle East
