Russia could deploy between 7 million and 9 million drones in 2026, according to European Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius on March 16.
Speaking at the Forum Europa event, Kubilius cautioned that Russia’s military spending is approaching the European Union’s combined defense budget when measured in purchasing power parity terms.
He framed the figure as a reminder of how rapidly Moscow is expanding its war-making capacity.
Kubilius noted that Russia is spending around 85% of the EU’s total defense budget under that calculation.
He added that the Kremlin is also preparing to field millions of drones next year, underscoring the scale of the threat facing Europe and Ukraine.
“We need to remember that Russia is spending on its military, in purchasing power parity terms, around 85% of the entire defense budget of the European Union,” Kubilius stated. “It is also ready to use between seven and nine million drones in 2026.”
His remarks come as European officials push for faster defense production, greater military coordination, and stronger long-term support for Ukraine amid Russia’s continued full-scale war.
European officials now believe they could replace most US intelligence support for Ukraine within months if Washington scales back, as contingency planning expands across the continent amid fresh doubts about American commitments.
French President Emmanuel Macron had already indicated that France provides roughly two-thirds of the intelligence backing Ukraine depends on, while other allies have widened surveillance, reconnaissance, and analytical support.
Officials familiar with the discussions noted that Ukraine’s dependence on US intelligence could be sharply reduced, though not fully eliminated, and that the impact of any pullback would be less severe than a year ago.
When Washington briefly paused intelligence sharing and weapons deliveries, other partners stepped in to cover part of the shortfall, while Kyiv leaned more heavily on drones and accelerated domestic weapons production.
Still, European capitals acknowledge intelligence is only one area where they can move faster, while air defense, satellite surveillance, strategic transport, secure communications, and other critical capabilities remain far harder to replace.
